Sunderland 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sunderland at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sunderland and Swansea meet at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.

Swansea (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Swansea's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Swansea in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sunderland 0W, Swansea 2W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 56% versus Swansea 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Swansea 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.90 xG and Swansea 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.139 / defence 0.952 | Swansea attack 1.045 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Sunderland games / 79 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sunderland 52% | Draw 22% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Swansea 4.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Swansea lead the H2H ledger, but Sunderland carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 60% | Swansea 70% BTTS from recent games.

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