Plymouth 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ipswich make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 4D 2L at Home Park — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Ipswich have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Plymouth, 2 for Ipswich and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ipswich — key trading statistics (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 56% versus Ipswich 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | Ipswich 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.65 xG and Ipswich 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.197 / defence 1.437 | Ipswich attack 1.083 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Data: 34 Plymouth games / 34 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 33% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Ipswich 2.17. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Ipswich 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 33% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Plymouth 1.65 / Ipswich 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.197 / def 1.437 | Ipswich attack 1.083 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Ipswich xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Ipswich kick off?
Plymouth vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Plymouth 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Plymouth vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Ipswich part of?
Plymouth vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 33% chance of winning, Ipswich a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Plymouth and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Ipswich?
Record (5 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Ipswich in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.20x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.08x) against Plymouth's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
33%
3.06
22%
4.63
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.62
1.97
Ipswich xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
5%
21.99
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.97 for Ipswich, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 80 games, going 41W 18D 21L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 2.12 PPG from 80 outings (49W 23D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Plymouth against 2.12 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 28W 5D 7L across 40 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.90 points per game from 40 outings (21W 13D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 41W 18D 21L in their last 80 games (1.76 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 49W 23D 8L in their last 80 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Ipswich away?
Plymouth's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.22 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ipswich in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Plymouth 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 50% (Ipswich). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ipswich in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Plymouth's matches and 50% of Ipswich's.
Do Plymouth and Ipswich tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Plymouth 0-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.65 xG and Ipswich 1.97 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.44 against Ipswich attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 33% | Draw 22% | Ipswich 46%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Ipswich 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.76 PPG, Ipswich 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.