Pardubice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Pardubice 2–2 Sigma Olomouc — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Sigma Olomouc 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.636 / defence 0.940 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.178 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.186. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Pardubice's last 41 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 41.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.39 | Draw 3.54 | Sigma Olomouc 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Pardubice 1.05 / Sigma Olomouc 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.636 / def 0.940 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.178 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 30% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.64x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.18x) against Pardubice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 41 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
30%
3.39
28%
3.54
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.36
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.31 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 8D 24L from 46 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 15L across 46 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 8W 5D 10L from their last 23 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across their last 23 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.61 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 8D 24L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.26 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Pardubice 1-5 Sigma Olomouc on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 30%; Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Pardubice's recent matches and 83% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.05 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.64 / defence 0.94 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 30% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.