České Budějovice 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates České Budějovice at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Pardubice meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours České Budějovice, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with České Budějovice winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both České Budějovice and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Pardubice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 66% | Pardubice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.91 xG and Pardubice 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.920 / defence 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.032 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Data: 42 České Budějovice games / 42 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 50% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 3.57. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 50% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG České Budějovice 1.91 / Pardubice 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.920 / def 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.032 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Pardubice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Pardubice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Pardubice part of?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 50% chance of winning, Pardubice a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both České Budějovice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.03x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.50
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.31
1.40
Pardubice xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
4%
24.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.40 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 6D 24L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 13W 9D 22L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.09 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (10W 2D 10L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 6W 3D 13L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.07 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 24L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Pardubice away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.45 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Pardubice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 32% of games; Pardubice in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Pardubice's.
Do České Budějovice and Pardubice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.91 xG and Pardubice 1.40 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Pardubice attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 50% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 28%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 66%, Pardubice 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.09 PPG, Pardubice 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.