Zlin 5-9 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zlin — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Zlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Mlada Boleslav have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mlada Boleslav — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Zlin, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Zlin 1–1 Mlada Boleslav — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 64% and Mlada Boleslav 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Mlada Boleslav 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zlin surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Mlada Boleslav have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.63 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.822 / defence 1.339 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.948 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.186. Zlin's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Zlin's last 41 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 40.
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.46 | Draw 4.14 | Mlada Boleslav 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Zlin 1.63 / Mlada Boleslav 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.822 / def 1.339 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.948 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Zlin 5 - 9 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 41 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.14
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.14
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zlin and 1.51 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 8W 14D 20L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 13D 15L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 2D 11L from their last 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Zlin's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.30 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won Zlin 5-9 Mlada Boleslav.
Zlin's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 1, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 70%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zlin and 65% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Zlin's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zlin's matches and 65% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Zlin and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Zlin's recent matches and 80% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 5-9 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 5-9 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.63 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 5-9 for 14 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.51 projection by 7.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 14, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 9 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.