České Budějovice 2-5 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (České Budějovice) versus 0.90 (Plzen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Plzen, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for České Budějovice.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 66% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.010 / defence 1.196 | Plzen attack 0.880 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.206. Data: 33 České Budějovice games / 33 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Plzen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG České Budějovice 1.55 / Plzen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.010 / def 1.196 | Plzen attack 0.880 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Plzen kick off?
České Budějovice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
České Budějovice 2 - 5 Plzen.
Where is České Budějovice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Plzen part of?
České Budějovice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 44% chance of winning, Plzen a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both České Budějovice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.01) and Plzen's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.01
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Plzen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.27 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 5D 19L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 17W 7D 11L from 35 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.66 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Plzen have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.44 PPG; Plzen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Plzen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
0
Draws
8
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Plzen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Plzen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 38%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 50% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Plzen's.
Do České Budějovice and Plzen tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Plzen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 2-5 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 2-5 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Plzen attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 66%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.