Hradec Králové 5-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hradec Králové welcome České Budějovice to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Malšovická Aréna this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, České Budějovice 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hradec Králové: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for České Budějovice, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hradec Králové and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus České Budějovice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 56% | České Budějovice 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.96 xG and České Budějovice 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / defence 1.097 | České Budějovice attack 0.930 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.201. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Hradec Králové games / 32 České Budějovice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 4.35. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Hradec Králové 1.96 / České Budějovice 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / def 1.097 | České Budějovice attack 0.930 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.23
České Budějovice xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové 5 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice part of?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 54% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hradec Králové and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 3W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.26
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.19
1.23
České Budějovice xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
3%
31.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.23 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 7D 15L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (11W 5D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.26 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 5W 2D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.18 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 18L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or České Budějovice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.06 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, České Budějovice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Hradec Králové and 69% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové have failed to score in 38% of games; České Budějovice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 62% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hradec Králové's matches and 69% of České Budějovice's.
Do Hradec Králové and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 5-1 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 5-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.96 xG and České Budějovice 1.23 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against České Budějovice attack 0.93 / defence 1.33, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 54% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 23%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 56%, České Budějovice 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.26 PPG, České Budějovice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.