Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 44%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sigma Olomouc have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Teplice are 0.50 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 80% of Teplice's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Teplice edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Teplice — a Teplice win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 55% and Teplice 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Teplice 63%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Sigma Olomouc recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.77 xG and Teplice 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.077 / defence 1.076 | Teplice attack 1.089 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.224. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 33 games and Teplice's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.25 | Draw 3.94 | Teplice 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Sigma Olomouc 33 games, Teplice 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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