Tianjin Teda 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Beijing Guoan travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 30 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Tianjin Teda's home record at TEDA Football Stadium: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.935 / defence 0.999 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.005 / defence 0.644. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.371. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.644 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Tianjin Teda games / 38 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 2.00. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 70% | Beijing Guoan 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.82 / Beijing Guoan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.935 / def 0.999 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.005 / def 0.644 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 22% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
22%
4.47
28%
3.61
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.20
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.72
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.38 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 16L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.54 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 14D 6L from 32 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 15W 8D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.73 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 / defence 0.64, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 22% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 50%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.