Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dalian Aerbin welcome Wuhan Zall to Puwan Stadium in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dalian Aerbin's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Zall — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wuhan Zall's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dalian Aerbin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Wuhan Zall 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2021, ended Dalian Aerbin 1–2 Wuhan Zall — a Wuhan Zall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 49% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 49% | Wuhan Zall 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.144 / defence 1.011 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.909 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.305. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 35 games and Wuhan Zall's last 35.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.81 | Draw 4.59 | Wuhan Zall 4.37. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.97 / Wuhan Zall 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.144 / def 1.011 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.909 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Wuhan Zall xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 55% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 35 games and Wuhan Zall's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.59
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.17
1.20
Wuhan Zall xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.20 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 12W 9D 22L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 8W 13D 22L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.05 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 5D 11L from their last 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.07 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 22L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 23 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Dec 2022, when Wuhan Zall won Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 December 2022: Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 55%, Wuhan Zall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 45% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 40% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 45% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 70% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.20 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 49%, Wuhan Zall 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.05 PPG, Wuhan Zall 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.