Tianjin Teda 1-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Guangzhou R&F travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Tianjin Teda have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guangzhou R&F stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Guangzhou R&F's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2022, ended Tianjin Teda 0–2 Guangzhou R&F — a Guangzhou R&F win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Guangzhou R&F 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Guangzhou R&F 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.100 / defence 0.773 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.729 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.384. Guangzhou R&F's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Tianjin Teda have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Guangzhou R&F's projected output down. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 41 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 41.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.60 | Draw 4.34 | Guangzhou R&F 7.02. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 home games) | Guangzhou R&F 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.88 / Guangzhou R&F 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.100 / def 0.773 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.729 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Guangzhou R&F xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 63% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.10x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 41 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.34
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.66
0.78
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
45.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.78 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 11D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 0.84 PPG from 49 outings (10W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.04 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Guangzhou R&F (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 10W 11D 28L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.29 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2022: Tianjin Teda 1-0 Guangzhou R&F.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 62%, Guangzhou R&F 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Tianjin Teda) and 38% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 42% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 38% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 71% of Guangzhou R&F's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Guangzhou R&F 1-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.78 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Guangzhou R&F 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.