Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 38%, yet in-form Shenzhen Ruby FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Wuhan Zall travel to Jinjiang Sports Center to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Jinjiang Sports Center this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2022, ended 3–0 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wuhan Zall trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 53% versus Wuhan Zall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61% | Wuhan Zall 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.607 / defence 1.339 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.743 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.392. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Zall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 41 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Zall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Zall as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shenzhen Ruby FC (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Wuhan Zall 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 / Wuhan Zall 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.607 / def 1.339 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.743 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Wuhan Zall xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 2 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.61) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.68
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.39
Wuhan Zall xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.39 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 8D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 0.84 PPG from 49 outings (9W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 3D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (4W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.02 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 23L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 26L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, Wuhan Zall 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 54% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Wuhan Zall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 42% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 54% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Zall edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.39 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.74 / defence 1.44, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%, Wuhan Zall 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Wuhan Zall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.