Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wuhan Three Towns register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (27 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (27 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 52% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 78% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.64 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.589 / defence 1.066 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.271 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.392. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.589 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Wuhan Three Towns games / 41 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 27%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.85 | Draw 5.26 | Changchun Yatai 3.70. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.53 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 79% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 79% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.64 / Changchun Yatai 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.589 / def 1.066 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.271 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Changchun Yatai xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 3 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 54% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 27% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.7%), 3-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
54%
1.85
19%
5.29
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
4.53
1.89
Changchun Yatai xG
1.85
54%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.78
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
7%
14.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
2%
52.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.89 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 4.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 27 games, going 21W 2D 4L for 2.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 7W 0D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.85 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 2D 4L in their last 27 games (2.41 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 2.10 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Three Towns at 60%, Changchun Yatai at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Wuhan Three Towns and 80% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 70% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 80% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.64 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.89 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.59 / defence 1.07 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 19% | Changchun Yatai 27%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 78%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (27 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (27 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Changchun Yatai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.