SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Dalian Aerbin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Aerbin to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 7W 1D 2L at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of SHANGHAI SIPG: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Dalian Aerbin, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 44% versus Dalian Aerbin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Dalian Aerbin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.175 / defence 1.031 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.724 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.282. Data: 48 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 48 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Aerbin 4.76. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Dalian Aerbin 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61 / Dalian Aerbin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.175 / def 1.031 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.724 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 51% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.18x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.68
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.57
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
23.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.96 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 48 games, going 30W 8D 10L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.19 PPG from 48 outings (14W 15D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 30W 8D 10L in their last 48 games (2.04 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.09 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 44%, Dalian Aerbin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 61% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 44% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 61% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 15, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, Dalian Aerbin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.