Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Aerbin face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Dalian Aerbin's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dalian Aerbin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 1D 6L from their last 7 away outings — 0.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 38% | Qingdao Jonoon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.48 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.870 / defence 0.956 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.752 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.295. Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 47 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 13.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.06 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.47. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 57% (last 7 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 14 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.48 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.870 / def 0.956 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.752 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Qingdao Jonoon xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 14) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 49% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.75x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 47 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.45
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.93 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.62 PPG from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.62 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.62 for Qingdao Jonoon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.14 points per game from their last 7 away games (0W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2023: Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 71%, Qingdao Jonoon 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dalian Aerbin) and 57% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 29% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 57% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 57% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Qingdao Jonoon finished level at 1-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.48 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 38%, Qingdao Jonoon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.62 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.