Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.80 PPG versus Shanghai Shenhua's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 53% versus Shanghai Shenhua 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Shanghai Shenhua 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.184 / defence 0.894 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.982 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.295. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 48 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.184 / def 0.894 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.982 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 37% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.18) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.27
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.37
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.14 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 22W 14D 11L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 21W 15D 11L from 47 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.70 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 9W 8D 5L from 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.21 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 22W 14D 11L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 15D 11L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.95 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 32%, Shanghai Shenhua 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 41% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 59% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 41% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.98 / defence 0.75, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 51%, Shanghai Shenhua 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.70 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.