SHANGHAI SIPG 5-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.10 for Changchun Yatai. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours SHANGHAI SIPG, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Changchun Yatai — Changchun Yatai have 1 win, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Changchun Yatai — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.397 / defence 1.010 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.897 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.419. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack rating of 1.397 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 39 games and Changchun Yatai's last 40.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.82 | Draw 4.50 | Changchun Yatai 4.41. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (SHANGHAI SIPG 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 / Changchun Yatai 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.397 / def 1.010 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.897 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 55% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.40x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.90x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 39 games and Changchun Yatai's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.50
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.37
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
3%
35.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.28 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 39W 11D 14L from 64 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 23L across 64 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 19W 6D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 games (2.00 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Changchun Yatai away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.97 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 18 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2025: Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 53%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 56% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 56% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 5-2 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.40 / defence 1.01 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 23%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.