Nantong Zhiyun 2-3 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai meet at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 1W 3D 6L at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nantong Zhiyun half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 57% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 33% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.733 / defence 1.115 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.739 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.375. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Nantong Zhiyun games / 39 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 30% | Draw 32% | Changchun Yatai 38%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Changchun Yatai 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 30% | Draw 32% | Changchun Yatai 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.98 / Changchun Yatai 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.733 / def 1.115 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.739 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Changchun Yatai xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Nantong Zhiyun 2 - 3 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 30% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.74x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.17
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.12
1.13
Changchun Yatai xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.13 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 4W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Changchun Yatai are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.67 PPG from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.47 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 games (0.73 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.67 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 47%, Changchun Yatai 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 40% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 33%; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 40% of games; Changchun Yatai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 47% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 40% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Nantong Zhiyun 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-3 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.98 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.13 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 30% | Draw 32% | Changchun Yatai 38%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 33%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.