Beijing Guoan 3-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Beijing Guoan welcome Meizhou Kejia to Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 1D 3L at Workers' Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Meizhou Kejia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Meizhou Kejia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.60 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.291 / defence 0.953 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.756 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.420. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Beijing Guoan games / 39 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Meizhou Kejia 4.35. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Meizhou Kejia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.60 / Meizhou Kejia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.291 / def 0.953 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.756 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Meizhou Kejia xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 50% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (4 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 3 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.69
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.62
1.02
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.02 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 64 games, going 31W 16D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (23W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.70 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (7W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Meizhou Kejia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 3-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.60 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.29 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 50% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Meizhou Kejia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.