Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Meizhou Kejia.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 4–2 Meizhou Kejia — a Qingdao Jonoon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Meizhou Kejia 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.711 / defence 0.950 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.019 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.447. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 38 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 38.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 29% | Meizhou Kejia 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.00 | Draw 3.46 | Meizhou Kejia 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights