Henan Jianye 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 1D 4L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.20 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.932 / defence 1.202 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.743 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.500. Data: 36 Henan Jianye games / 37 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 40% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Henan Jianye 1.71 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.932 / def 1.202 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.743 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Qingdao Jonoon xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye 3 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.93) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.61
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.05
1.34
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.34 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 33L across 60 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 6D 22L across 30 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.60 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 37% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.