Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 44%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Youth Island travel to Huizhou Olympic Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Qingdao Youth Island are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Jul 2024, ended Hangzhou Greentown 2–5 Qingdao Youth Island — a Qingdao Youth Island win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / defence 1.032 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.163 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.441. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 38 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 37.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.30 | Draw 4.16 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 90% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / def 1.032 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.163 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Qingdao Youth Island xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.08x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 38 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.16
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.74
1.73
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.73 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 11W 5D 14L from 30 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.27 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 8W 3D 4L from their last 15 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across their last 15 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.80 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 28 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won Qingdao Youth Island 5-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2026: Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Qingdao Youth Island at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Hangzhou Greentown and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 93% of Qingdao Youth Island's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Youth Island 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.01 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.73 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.27 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.