Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Meizhou Kejia.

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Full Analysis

Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Current Form

Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–0 Meizhou Kejia — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.

Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Meizhou Kejia 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.907 / defence 1.287 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.909 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.308. Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 50 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 50.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.31 | Draw 4.20 | Meizhou Kejia 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 30% (last 10 away games).

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