Meizhou Kejia 3-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Meizhou Kejia face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Form

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.20 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Meizhou Kejia 0–0 Tianjin Teda — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 61% and Tianjin Teda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 59% | Tianjin Teda 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Meizhou Kejia surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Tianjin Teda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Meizhou Kejia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.611 / defence 1.060 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.340. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.611 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 51 games and Tianjin Teda's last 51.

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 26% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 47%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.81 | Draw 3.69 | Tianjin Teda 2.14. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 60% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 80% (last 10 away games).

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