Henan Jianye 1-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 4W 1D 5L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 56% versus Shandong Luneng 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 50% | Shandong Luneng 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / defence 0.945 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.885 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.328. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Henan Jianye games / 50 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | Shandong Luneng 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Henan Jianye 1.28 / Shandong Luneng 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / def 0.945 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.885 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Shandong Luneng xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 40% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.89x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.48
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.39
1.11
Shandong Luneng xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.11 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 15W 15D 20L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 8L across 50 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 11W 8D 7L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 8W 12D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.82 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 17D 8L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.58 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 58%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Henan Jianye) and 38% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 38%; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 38% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Shandong Luneng 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shandong Luneng 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 50%, Shandong Luneng 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.