Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Meizhou Kejia face Wuhan Zall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Meizhou Kejia welcome Wuhan Zall to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 7 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Zall — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Meizhou Kejia) versus 1.30 (Wuhan Zall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 60% and Wuhan Zall 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 40% | Wuhan Zall 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.71 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.041 / defence 1.130 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.806 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.129. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 10 games and Wuhan Zall's last 24.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 53% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Zall 23%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.88 | Draw 4.12 | Wuhan Zall 4.43. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Meizhou Kejia's last 5 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 80% (last 5 home games) | Wuhan Zall 20% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 53% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Zall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.71 / Wuhan Zall 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.041 / def 1.130 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.806 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Wuhan Zall xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 53% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.04) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 10 games and Wuhan Zall's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.12
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.74
1.03
Wuhan Zall xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
24.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.03 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 5D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.40 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wuhan Zall in 60%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.60 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2022: Wuhan Zall 0-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 80%, Wuhan Zall 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Meizhou Kejia) and 40% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 40%; Wuhan Zall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 20% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 40% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 60% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.71 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 53% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Zall 23%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 40%, Wuhan Zall 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.40 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.