Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Wuyuan River Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) versus 0.60 (Guangzhou Evergrande FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 2 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 2–5 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.743 / defence 1.078 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.834 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.110. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 24 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.743 / def 1.078 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.834 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 41% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.74) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.44
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.00 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 10D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (15W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 5W 6D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (6W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 15W 5D 12L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.31 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Guangzhou Evergrande FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 44% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 31%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 38% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 44% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.