Shanghai Shenhua 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Jinzhou Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 August 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Jinzhou Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Shanghai Shenhua are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 2 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 56% versus Changchun Yatai 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / defence 0.754 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.109 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.131. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Shanghai Shenhua games / 24 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 63% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 16%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Changchun Yatai 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 63% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.06 / Changchun Yatai 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / def 0.754 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.109 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Changchun Yatai xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 63% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.02x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.87
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.00
0.94
Changchun Yatai xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
47.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.94 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 32 games, going 16W 10D 6L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (13W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.81 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 10W 5D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.41 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 11D 8L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.19 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Changchun Yatai 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 69% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 62% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 69% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shanghai Shenhua's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.06 xG and Changchun Yatai 0.94 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 0.75 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.11 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 63% | Draw 21% | Changchun Yatai 16%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 44%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.81 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.