SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye meet at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.70 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 51% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.219 / defence 0.957 | Henan Jianye attack 0.955 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.167. Data: 32 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 32 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 23%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 4.35. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75 / Henan Jianye 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.219 / def 0.957 | Henan Jianye attack 0.955 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 53% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.22) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.95x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.24
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.07 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 63 games, going 39W 11D 13L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 19W 6D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 13L in their last 63 games (2.03 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Henan Jianye away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.03 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.06 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 55%, Henan Jianye 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 42% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 42% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 3-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 23%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.