Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome Henan Jianye to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (43 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 58% versus Henan Jianye 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63% | Henan Jianye 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.821 / defence 1.087 | Henan Jianye attack 0.814 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.284. Data: 35 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 35 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 29% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 41%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Henan Jianye 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% | Henan Jianye 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 29% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 / Henan Jianye 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.821 / def 1.087 | Henan Jianye attack 0.814 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 29% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.82) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
29%
3.48
31%
3.26
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.14 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 8D 19L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.56 PPG from 43 outings (18W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.30 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 8W 3D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (4W 8D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.26 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.42 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
From 5 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47% BTTS, Henan Jianye 21%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 21% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 47%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 37% of games; Henan Jianye in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 21% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 21% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Henan Jianye attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 29% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 41%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 63%, Henan Jianye 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.30 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.