Changchun Yatai 3-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Changchun's People Stadium to face Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 3 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 2D 4L at Changchun's People Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Changchun Yatai, 1.30 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2022, ended 2–6 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 54% | Henan Jianye 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.39 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.115 / defence 1.230 | Henan Jianye attack 0.875 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.297. Data: 47 Changchun Yatai games / 46 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 60% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.39 / Henan Jianye 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.115 / def 1.230 | Henan Jianye attack 0.875 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Henan Jianye xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 36% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.11x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.88x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.53
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.79
1.40
Henan Jianye xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.40 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 13D 17L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.54 PPG from 46 outings (19W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.54 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.50 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.23 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
4
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 50%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Changchun Yatai) and 32% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 32%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 32% of games; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Henan Jianye 3-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.39 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.11 / defence 1.23 against Henan Jianye attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 54%, Henan Jianye 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.33 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.