Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Hebei Zhongji's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 0D 10L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dalian Aerbin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Hebei Zhongji (1.20 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2021, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–1 Hebei Zhongji — a Hebei Zhongji win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 49% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Hebei Zhongji 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.75 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.166 / defence 0.994 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.660 / defence 1.654. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.224. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.654 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 29 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 31.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.29 | Draw 6.73 | Hebei Zhongji 13.02. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (77%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.75 / Hebei Zhongji 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.166 / def 0.994 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.660 / def 1.654 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hebei Zhongji xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 77% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (1.17) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.66x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 29 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.73
8%
13.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.55
0.80
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.73
15%
Draw
13.02
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
6%
15.67
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.80 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 10W 8D 21L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 25L across 39 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.72 for Hebei Zhongji. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 6W 4D 9L from their last 19 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 3D 14L across their last 19 away games, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.64 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 25L in their last 39 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.16 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Dalian Aerbin have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin on 30 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
2
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2022: Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 47%, Hebei Zhongji 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Dalian Aerbin) and 53% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 32% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 37% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 53% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 63% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.75 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.80 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.66 / defence 1.65, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 77% | Draw 15% | Hebei Zhongji 8%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Hebei Zhongji 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.97 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.