Beijing Guoan 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 35%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.44 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hangzhou Greentown arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Hangzhou Greentown 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beijing Guoan 53% | Hangzhou Greentown 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.08 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.765 / defence 0.843 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.999 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.255. Beijing Guoan's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Beijing Guoan games / 15 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Hangzhou Greentown 34%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Hangzhou Greentown 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.08 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.765 / def 0.843 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.999 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 35% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.00x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 29/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.20
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.06 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 7W 5D 5L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 3L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.76 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.41 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.50 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 38%, Hangzhou Greentown 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Beijing Guoan and 25% for Hangzhou Greentown.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Beijing Guoan have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Beijing Guoan's games and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 25% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 2-2 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.08 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 35% | Draw 31% | Hangzhou Greentown 34%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.53 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.