Dalian Aerbin 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Beijing Guoan at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin at Puwan Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalian Aerbin at 1.50 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalian Aerbin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 49% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Beijing Guoan 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.99 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.138 / defence 0.993 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.142 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.233. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Dalian Aerbin games / 31 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 51% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 26%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 3.85. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 60% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 51% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.99 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.138 / def 0.993 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.142 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 51% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (1.14) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.28
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.39
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
4%
28.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 8D 20L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 16W 11D 12L from 39 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.33 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.32 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 53%, Beijing Guoan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dalian Aerbin) and 63% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 26% of games; Beijing Guoan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 58% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Dalian Aerbin and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.99 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 51% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 26%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Beijing Guoan 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.