Changchun Yatai 2-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Wuhan Zall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall meet at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2021, ended Changchun Yatai 2–2 Wuhan Zall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and Wuhan Zall 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 55% | Wuhan Zall 58%). Note also that Wuhan Zall surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Changchun Yatai recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.33 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.909 / defence 0.975 | Wuhan Zall attack 1.049 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.248. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 30 games and Wuhan Zall's last 30.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Zall 34%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.72 | Draw 3.48 | Wuhan Zall 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 September 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Zall 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.33 / Wuhan Zall 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.909 / def 0.975 | Wuhan Zall attack 1.049 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Wuhan Zall xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 37% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (1.05x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 30 games and Wuhan Zall's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.48
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.60
1.28
Wuhan Zall xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.28 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 13D 10L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 8W 13D 17L from 38 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Changchun Yatai are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 7D 4L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 5D 9L from their last 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.16 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Wuhan Zall in 63%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 15W 13D 10L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 17L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.56 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 4 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 December 2022: Wuhan Zall 1-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 56%, Wuhan Zall 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Changchun Yatai) and 44% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 33%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 28% of games; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 39% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 44% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 67% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Wuhan Zall 2-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.33 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Zall landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Zall attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Zall 34%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 55%, Wuhan Zall 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.