Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Super League appearances (2.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.12 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 8 home games (88%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.90 PPG versus Shanghai Shenhua's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 39% versus Shanghai Shenhua 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.083 / defence 0.641 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.166 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.258. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.641 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Hangzhou Greentown games / 29 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 23%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Shanghai Shenhua 4.35. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 0% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 / Shanghai Shenhua 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.083 / def 0.641 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.166 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Shanghai Shenhua xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 48% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.08) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.45
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.39
0.94
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.94 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 8W 7D 3L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 9W 7D 2L from 18 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.72 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.44 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Shanghai Shenhua in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 9W 7D 2L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.29 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hangzhou Greentown 0% BTTS, Shanghai Shenhua 57%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 43% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 43%; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 43% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 0.94 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 0.64 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 23%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 28%, Shanghai Shenhua 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.72 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.