Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban meet at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Odds
Bookmakers make Beijing Guoan the preferred side — Beijing Guoan priced at 1.38 (68% implied), Draw at 4.93 (19%), Shenyang Urban at 6.86 (14% implied).
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Beijing Workers' Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shenyang Urban have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenyang Urban have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Beijing Guoan. A 0.50 PPG lead over Shenyang Urban (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Shenyang Urban and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Shenyang Urban half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 65% versus Shenyang Urban 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 59% | Shenyang Urban 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.05 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.063 / defence 0.953 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.925 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.367. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 17 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 57% | Draw 21% | Shenyang Urban 22%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Shenyang Urban 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model sees Beijing Guoan as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 57% versus the market's fair-implied 68% (priced at 1.38). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game. The market (1.40, fair-implied 67%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 70% | Shenyang Urban 38%. Market pricing (1.59, fair-implied 58%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 57% | Draw 21% | Shenyang Urban 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.05 / Shenyang Urban 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.063 / def 0.953 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.925 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Beijing Guoan 1.38 (impl 68%) | Draw 4.93 (impl 19%) | Shenyang Urban 6.86 (impl 14%) • Market favourite: Beijing Guoan at 1.38 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Beijing Guoan) but Poisson rates them at 57% vs market implied 68% — model sees a 11pp premium worth monitoring • Beijing Guoan Win: Poisson 57% vs market fair-implied 68% (11pp gap) — the model sees Beijing Guoan as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Shenyang Urban Win: Poisson 22% vs market fair-implied 14% (8pp gap) — the model sees Shenyang Urban as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.40 (impl 72%) / Under 2.5 2.80 (impl 36%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 63% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.59 (impl 63%) / No 2.22 (impl 45%) | Poisson BTTS probability 61%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shenyang Urban xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 57% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
1X2 market: Beijing Guoan 1.38 (impl 68%) | Draw 4.93 (impl 19%) | Shenyang Urban 6.86 (impl 14%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shenyang Urban's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Shenyang Urban's attack (0.93x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.72
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.25
1.21
Shenyang Urban xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
3%
35.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.21 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 7W 5D 5L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenyang Urban, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 9L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.18 for Shenyang Urban. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenyang Urban's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenyang Urban's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Shenyang Urban are on 1.41 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shenyang Urban
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Shenyang Urban have gone 6W 2D 9L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shenyang Urban away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.62 PPG; Shenyang Urban away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shenyang Urban been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shenyang Urban in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban?
From 2 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 0, Shenyang Urban have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Shenyang Urban 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Beijing Guoan and 62% for Shenyang Urban. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shenyang Urban in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shenyang Urban?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 38% of Shenyang Urban's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 62% of Shenyang Urban's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shenyang Urban in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Shenyang Urban finished level at 1-1 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.05 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.21 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 57% | Draw 21% | Shenyang Urban 22%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 59%, Shenyang Urban 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.53 PPG, Shenyang Urban 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.