RB Bragantino 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 51%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this RB Bragantino vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
RB Bragantino welcome Corinthians to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
RB Bragantino at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Corinthians stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Corinthians away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Corinthians's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of RB Bragantino's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for RB Bragantino, 2 for Corinthians and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended RB Bragantino 1–0 Corinthians — a RB Bragantino win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Corinthians trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 49% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 45% | Corinthians 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.52 xG and Corinthians 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.070 / defence 0.962 | Corinthians attack 0.935 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.033. Data: built from RB Bragantino's last 40 games and Corinthians's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 51% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.97 | Draw 3.76 | Corinthians 4.40. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RB Bragantino 50% (last 10 home games) | Corinthians 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (RB Bragantino 40 games, Corinthians 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 51% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG RB Bragantino 1.52 / Corinthians 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.070 / def 0.962 | Corinthians attack 0.935 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Corinthians xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Corinthians FAQs
What time does RB Bragantino vs Corinthians kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Corinthians?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Corinthians part of?
RB Bragantino vs Corinthians is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 51% chance of winning, Corinthians a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RB Bragantino and Corinthians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will RB Bragantino vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.07x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Bragantino's last 40 games and Corinthians's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.76
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Corinthians xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
20.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Bragantino vs Corinthians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.93 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 28W 22D 26L from 76 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 30W 25D 21L across 76 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Bragantino on 1.39 PPG, Corinthians on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 19W 10D 9L from their last 38 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 12W 11D 15L across their last 38 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.20 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
RB Bragantino (Home) vs Corinthians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ RB Bragantino vs Corinthians Form FAQs
What form are RB Bragantino and Corinthians in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 30W 25D 21L in their last 76 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Corinthians away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.76 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.24 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Corinthians have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
4
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Bragantino vs Corinthians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Corinthians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Bragantino have won 5, Corinthians have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Corinthians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: RB Bragantino 0-2 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Corinthians?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 45%, Corinthians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (RB Bragantino) and 45% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Corinthians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Bragantino and Corinthians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 47% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Bragantino and Corinthians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 45% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Corinthians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 76% of Corinthians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Corinthians 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.52 xG and Corinthians 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Corinthians attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 51% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 45%, Corinthians 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG, Corinthians 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.