Fortaleza EC 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fortaleza EC, 1.00 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Fortaleza EC 3W, RB Bragantino 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 47% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.974 / defence 1.035 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.084. Data: 40 Fortaleza EC games / 41 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | RB Bragantino 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 60% | RB Bragantino 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.32 / RB Bragantino 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.974 / def 1.035 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 39% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Record (6 meetings): Fortaleza EC 3W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 3W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.97) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.07x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.73
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.20 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 30W 19D 27L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 28W 22D 26L from 76 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.39 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.63 PPG from 38 outings (16W 14D 8L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 9W 12D 17L from 38 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 28W 22D 26L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fortaleza EC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2025, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fortaleza EC) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 34% of games; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 4, as Fortaleza EC and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 39% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 34%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.43 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.