Vitoria 2-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vitoria face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estádio Manoel Barradas to face Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Bahia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Bahia have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.08 xG and Bahia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.703 / defence 1.118 | Bahia attack 1.089 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.987. Vitoria's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Vitoria's last 1 games and Bahia's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 33% | Draw 28% | Bahia 39%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.06 | Draw 3.52 | Bahia 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Vitoria 1 games, Bahia 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 33% | Draw 28% | Bahia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Vitoria 1.08 / Bahia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.703 / def 1.118 | Bahia attack 1.089 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Bahia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bahia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitoria vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Vitoria vs Bahia kick off?
Vitoria vs Bahia kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Bahia?
Vitoria 2 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Vitoria vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Bahia part of?
Vitoria vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 33% chance of winning, Bahia a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitoria and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Vitoria vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.70x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.09x) against Vitoria's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Vitoria's last 1 games and Bahia's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.52
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Bahia xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.20 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Vitoria (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitoria
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitoria vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Bahia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitoria have won 1, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vitoria and Bahia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria and Bahia finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.08 xG and Bahia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 1/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 33% | Draw 28% | Bahia 39%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.