Palmeiras 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Fluminense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 0, Fluminense 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 50% | Fluminense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.80 xG and Fluminense 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.329 / defence 0.654 | Fluminense attack 0.845 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.160. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.654 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Palmeiras games / 74 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Fluminense 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Fluminense lead the H2H ledger, but Palmeiras carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 10% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 40% | xG Palmeiras 1.80 / Fluminense 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.329 / def 0.654 | Fluminense attack 0.845 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 65% chance of winning, Fluminense a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.33x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.52
13%
7.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.44
0.64
Fluminense xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
7.94
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
2%
48.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.64 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 42W 21D 11L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 37W 15D 22L from 74 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 1.99 PPG, Fluminense on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.27 PPG from 37 outings (26W 6D 5L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 12W 8D 17L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Fluminense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 42W 21D 11L in their last 74 games (1.99 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 37W 15D 22L in their last 74 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.27 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Fluminense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Fluminense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palmeiras) and 43% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; Fluminense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 35% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palmeiras's recent games and 43% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Fluminense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.80 xG and Fluminense 0.64 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.33 / defence 0.65 against Fluminense attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 65% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 13%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 50%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fluminense's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.99 PPG, Fluminense 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.