RB Bragantino 1-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host Coritiba at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coritiba's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.30 PPG, Coritiba 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for RB Bragantino, 1 for Coritiba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 49% versus Coritiba 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 45% | Coritiba 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.97 xG and Coritiba 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.059 / defence 0.882 | Coritiba attack 1.188 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.157. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 RB Bragantino games / 74 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 55% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Coritiba 4.35. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 50% | Coritiba 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 55% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG RB Bragantino 1.97 / Coritiba 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.059 / def 0.882 | Coritiba attack 1.188 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Coritiba xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 55% chance of winning, Coritiba a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RB Bragantino and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Coritiba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.06) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.59
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
3.19
1.21
Coritiba xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
3%
31.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.21 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 27W 22D 25L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 20W 12D 42L from 74 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.73 PPG from 37 outings (18W 10D 9L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 28L from 37 away games — 0.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.08 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Coritiba in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 27W 22D 25L in their last 74 games (1.39 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 20W 12D 42L in their last 74 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Coritiba away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.73 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.51 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Coritiba in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Coritiba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 46%, Coritiba 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (RB Bragantino) and 73% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Coritiba in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of RB Bragantino's games and 68% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of RB Bragantino's matches and 73% of Coritiba's.
Do RB Bragantino and Coritiba tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Coritiba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Coritiba 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.97 xG and Coritiba 1.21 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Coritiba landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Coritiba attack 1.19 / defence 1.45, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 55% | Draw 22% | Coritiba 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 45%, Coritiba 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coritiba's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.