America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
America Mineiro host Bahia at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, America Mineiro stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
America Mineiro's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bahia — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bahia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bahia are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for America Mineiro, 1 for Bahia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended America Mineiro 1–3 Bahia — a Bahia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
America Mineiro trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bahia trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 67% versus Bahia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (America Mineiro 69% | Bahia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.788 / defence 1.488 | Bahia attack 1.135 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.157. America Mineiro's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Bahia's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing America Mineiro's projected output up. America Mineiro's defence rating of 1.488 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bahia's projected output up. Data: built from America Mineiro's last 74 games and Bahia's last 36.
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 4.07 | Draw 4.55 | Bahia 1.87. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (America Mineiro's last 10 home games and Bahia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: America Mineiro 40% (last 10 home games) | Bahia 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG America Mineiro 1.26 / Bahia 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.788 / def 1.488 | Bahia attack 1.135 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Bahia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Bahia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ America Mineiro vs Bahia FAQs
What time does America Mineiro vs Bahia kick off?
America Mineiro vs Bahia kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
America Mineiro 3 - 2 Bahia.
Where is America Mineiro vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Bahia part of?
America Mineiro vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 25% chance of winning, Bahia a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both America Mineiro and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will America Mineiro vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.79) and Bahia's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from America Mineiro's last 74 games and Bahia's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
3.21
1.95
Bahia xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
3%
28.70
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ America Mineiro vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.95 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 4W 9D 23L from 36 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over America Mineiro heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 4W 2D 12L from their last 18 home games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across their last 18 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.22 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: America Mineiro have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
America Mineiro (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
America Mineiro
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ America Mineiro vs Bahia Form FAQs
What form are America Mineiro and Bahia in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 4W 9D 23L in their last 36 games (0.58 PPG), while Bahia have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Bahia away?
Bahia's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 0.78 PPG; Bahia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
America Mineiro's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ America Mineiro vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Bahia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, America Mineiro have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 December 2023: America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Bahia?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 50%, Bahia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (America Mineiro) and 44% (Bahia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro have failed to score in 39% of games; Bahia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ America Mineiro vs Bahia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in America Mineiro and Bahia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 33% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are America Mineiro and Bahia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of America Mineiro's matches and 44% of Bahia's.
Do America Mineiro and Bahia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 67% of Bahia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as America Mineiro defy the odds to beat Bahia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.95 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.79 / defence 1.49 against Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 25% | Draw 22% | Bahia 53%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a America Mineiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 69%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with America Mineiro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.