Flamengo 0-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Botafogo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Flamengo — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Botafogo have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Botafogo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Flamengo 2–1 Botafogo — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 51% versus Botafogo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Botafogo 40%). Note also that Botafogo surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.66 xG and Botafogo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.078 / defence 0.963 | Botafogo attack 1.101 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.087. Data: built from Flamengo's last 41 games and Botafogo's last 41.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 26%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.03 | Draw 4.12 | Botafogo 3.78. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Botafogo's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Flamengo 30% (last 10 home games) | Botafogo 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Flamengo 1.66 / Botafogo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.078 / def 0.963 | Botafogo attack 1.101 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Botafogo xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Botafogo kick off?
Flamengo vs Botafogo kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Flamengo 0 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Flamengo vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Botafogo part of?
Flamengo vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 49% chance of winning, Botafogo a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Flamengo and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Flamengo vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.08) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 41 games and Botafogo's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.12
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Botafogo xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.15 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 37W 17D 22L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 33W 18D 25L from 76 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.68 PPG, Botafogo on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 38 home games (21W 8D 9L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 16W 10D 12L from their last 38 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.30 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Botafogo Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 22L in their last 76 games (1.68 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 33W 18D 25L in their last 76 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Botafogo away?
Flamengo's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.87 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Botafogo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won Botafogo 4-1 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Botafogo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 5, Botafogo have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Botafogo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Botafogo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Botafogo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Botafogo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 45% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Botafogo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Botafogo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Flamengo's recent matches and 63% of Botafogo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Flamengo 0-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.66 xG and Botafogo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Botafogo attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 26%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Botafogo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.68 PPG, Botafogo 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.