Coritiba 0-2 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Corinthians at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coritiba vs Corinthians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Corinthians meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time.
Current Form
Coritiba's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coritiba at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Corinthians (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Corinthians have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Corinthians are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Corinthians edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Coritiba 1–3 Corinthians — a Corinthians win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 55% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 55% | Corinthians 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Coritiba surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Corinthians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.02 xG and Corinthians 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.797 / defence 1.191 | Corinthians attack 1.169 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.118. Coritiba's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Coritiba's last 75 games and Corinthians's last 75.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.03 | Draw 3.94 | Corinthians 2.01. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coritiba 40% (last 10 home games) | Corinthians 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Coritiba 1.02 / Corinthians 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.797 / def 1.191 | Corinthians attack 1.169 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Corinthians xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coritiba vs Corinthians FAQs
What time does Coritiba vs Corinthians kick off?
Coritiba vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Coritiba 0 - 2 Corinthians.
Where is Coritiba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Corinthians part of?
Coritiba vs Corinthians is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 25% chance of winning, Corinthians a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Corinthians will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Coritiba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.80) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (1.17x) against Coritiba's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Coritiba's last 75 games and Corinthians's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
25%
4.03
25%
3.94
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.57
1.56
Corinthians xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
19.11
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coritiba vs Corinthians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.56 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Coritiba have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 20W 12D 43L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 29W 25D 21L from 75 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Corinthians are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 37 home games (15W 8D 14L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 11W 11D 15L from their last 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.19 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
Coritiba (Home) vs Corinthians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coritiba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Coritiba vs Corinthians Form FAQs
What form are Coritiba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 20W 12D 43L in their last 75 games (0.96 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 29W 25D 21L in their last 75 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Corinthians away?
Coritiba's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.43 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Corinthians in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Coritiba have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Coritiba vs Corinthians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coritiba have won 2, Corinthians have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Corinthians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 43%, Corinthians 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Coritiba) and 46% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Coritiba have failed to score in 27% of games; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coritiba vs Corinthians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coritiba and Corinthians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Coritiba's recent matches and 49% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coritiba and Corinthians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coritiba's recent games and 46% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Corinthians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Coritiba's recent matches and 76% of Corinthians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Coritiba 0-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.02 xG and Corinthians 1.56 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Corinthians attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 25% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 50%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 55%, Corinthians 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.