Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sao Paulo face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo host Flamengo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off is Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Sao Paulo have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Flamengo — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sao Paulo at 1.50 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Sao Paulo, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Sao Paulo 1–1 Flamengo — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 52% versus Flamengo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 47% | Flamengo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sao Paulo surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.18 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.011 / defence 0.712 | Flamengo attack 1.273 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.118. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.273, which lifts their away xG to 1.01. Sao Paulo have a tight defence (rating 0.712), which is pulling Flamengo's projected output down. Data: built from Sao Paulo's last 75 games and Flamengo's last 75.
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 40% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 31%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.52 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sao Paulo's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sao Paulo 30% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 40% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sao Paulo 1.18 / Flamengo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.011 / def 0.712 | Flamengo attack 1.273 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Flamengo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo part of?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 40% chance of winning, Flamengo a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sao Paulo and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sao Paulo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.01) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sao Paulo's last 75 games and Flamengo's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.45
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.20
1.01
Flamengo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.01 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo come into this having played 75 games, going 26W 26D 23L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.71 PPG from 75 outings (37W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.39 PPG, Flamengo on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sao Paulo's home form reads 20W 9D 8L across their last 37 home games, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 37 away games (16W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.55 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Sao Paulo (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Sao Paulo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 26W 26D 23L in their last 75 games (1.39 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 21L in their last 75 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Flamengo away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.86 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Flamengo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
3
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sao Paulo have won 3, Flamengo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 46%, Flamengo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sao Paulo) and 57% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 62% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sao Paulo's matches and 57% of Flamengo's.
Do Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 68% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Flamengo 1-0 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.18 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against Flamengo attack 1.27 / defence 0.91, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 40% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 31%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 47%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Flamengo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.39 PPG, Flamengo 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.