Botafogo 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Botafogo face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Botafogo welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A (matchday 17). Kick-off is Thursday 18 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Botafogo have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palmeiras stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 2.30 PPG versus Palmeiras's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Botafogo, 3 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2023, ended Botafogo 3–4 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 52% versus Palmeiras 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 44% | Palmeiras 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Botafogo surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.53 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.206 / defence 0.846 | Palmeiras attack 1.244 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.072. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.244, which lifts their away xG to 1.13. Data: built from Botafogo's last 54 games and Palmeiras's last 54.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.22 | Draw 3.51 | Palmeiras 3.78. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Botafogo 60% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Thursday 18 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Botafogo 1.53 / Palmeiras 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.206 / def 0.846 | Palmeiras attack 1.244 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palmeiras xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Thursday 18 July 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Botafogo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Palmeiras part of?
Botafogo vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 45% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Botafogo and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Botafogo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 54 games and Palmeiras's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.51
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Palmeiras xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.13 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 13D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.91 PPG from 54 outings (30W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.80 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Botafogo's home form reads 16W 5D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 10D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.65 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
Botafogo (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Botafogo vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Botafogo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 28W 13D 13L in their last 54 games (1.80 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 30W 13D 11L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Palmeiras away?
Botafogo's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.04 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 4-0 Botafogo.
Botafogo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Palmeiras 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Botafogo) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Palmeiras in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Botafogo vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Botafogo and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Botafogo's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Botafogo and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Botafogo's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Botafogo's recent matches and 77% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.53 xG and Palmeiras 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 26%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 44%, Palmeiras 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.80 PPG, Palmeiras 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.