Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 7W 1D 2L at Allianz Parque — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cruzeiro's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Palmeiras, 1.90 for Cruzeiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cruzeiro in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palmeiras, 0 for Cruzeiro and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 39% versus Cruzeiro 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 44% | Cruzeiro 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Cruzeiro 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.182 / defence 0.780 | Cruzeiro attack 0.776 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.058. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Palmeiras games / 54 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Cruzeiro 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 30% | Cruzeiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Palmeiras 1.62 / Cruzeiro 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.182 / def 0.780 | Cruzeiro attack 0.776 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro part of?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palmeiras and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.18x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.78x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.78
13%
7.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.26
0.64
Cruzeiro xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
7.44
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.64 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 54 games, going 29W 13D 12L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (20W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 19W 3D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 29W 13D 12L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cruzeiro away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.22 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Palmeiras) and 22% (Cruzeiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Palmeiras) and 33% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 48%; Cruzeiro in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 22% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Palmeiras's recent games and 33% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cruzeiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cruzeiro 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.62 xG and Cruzeiro 0.64 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Cruzeiro attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 60% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 13%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Cruzeiro 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.