Cruzeiro 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cruzeiro face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
RB Bragantino travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on Cruzeiro in Serie A (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cruzeiro — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cruzeiro's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Bragantino away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cruzeiro 1.60 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Cruzeiro's games and 60% of RB Bragantino's (from Cruzeiro's last 10 home games and RB Bragantino's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cruzeiro have won 1, RB Bragantino 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Cruzeiro 0–0 RB Bragantino — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
RB Bragantino trading profile (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 32% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 34% | RB Bragantino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.90 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.387 / defence 0.802 | RB Bragantino attack 0.984 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.073. Cruzeiro carry an above-average attack rating of 1.387 — their 1.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Cruzeiro's last 53 games and RB Bragantino's last 53.
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.65 | Draw 4.05 | RB Bragantino 6.85. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cruzeiro 70% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cruzeiro 1.90 / RB Bragantino 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.387 / def 0.802 | RB Bragantino attack 0.984 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Cruzeiro 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino part of?
Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 61% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.39) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cruzeiro's last 53 games and RB Bragantino's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.05
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.75
0.85
RB Bragantino xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
45.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.85 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 15L across 53 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.38 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 10W 8D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; RB Bragantino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
Cruzeiro (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cruzeiro
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or RB Bragantino away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.52 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 13 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2023, when Cruzeiro won RB Bragantino 0-3 Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cruzeiro have won 4, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 October 2026: RB Bragantino 4-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 40%, RB Bragantino 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Cruzeiro and 32% for RB Bragantino.
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 36% of games; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cruzeiro vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 44% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 32% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 76% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.90 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.39 / defence 0.80 against RB Bragantino attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 15%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 34%, RB Bragantino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.38 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.