Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face Charleroi.

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Fixture Analysis

Union St. Gilloise welcome Charleroi to Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Union St. Gilloise's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Charleroi — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Charleroi's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Charleroi and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Charleroi — a Union St. Gilloise win.

The head-to-head data gives Union St. Gilloise an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Union St. Gilloise in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 66% and Charleroi 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 63% | Charleroi 54%). Note also that Charleroi surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.08 xG and Charleroi 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.293 / defence 0.981 | Charleroi attack 0.896 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.311. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack rating of 1.293 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 42 games and Charleroi's last 41.

Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 24% | Charleroi 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 4.25 | Charleroi 5.21. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 50% (last 10 away games).

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